Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 1474 · DAL → TPA
departs 8:41 PM CT · arrives 12:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 49%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±2 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.