Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1589
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1589 · LAS → PHX
departs 5:16 PM PT · arrives 7:32 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 42%
Fri 11/6 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,933 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.