Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1589
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1589 · PHX → OMA
departs 7:05 PM MT · arrives 10:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,933 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.09 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.