Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1642 · DEN → LAS
departs 8:51 PM MT · arrives 9:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 60%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 42 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.