Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 1765 · DEN → SBA
departs 9:30 PM MT · arrives 11:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±15 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 41 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 41 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.12 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.