Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 1841 · SEA → DEN
departs 4:16 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 47%
Fri 11/6 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 42 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 42 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.