Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 2198 · ISP → MCO
departs 7:09 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 29%
Fri 11/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.