Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 2316 · LAX → TUS
departs 8:56 PM PT · arrives 11:36 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.