Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2391
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 2391 · LAS → RNO
departs 9:53 PM PT · arrives 11:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 40%
Fri 11/6 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.