WN 2473 · ICT → DEN

took off 7:08 AM CT · expected to land 7:07 AM MT (scheduled 6:50 AM CT → 7:26 AM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Gusts to 39 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ICT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ICT are usually not late

Weather at each end

ICT (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.43 in

DEN (destination) Gusts39 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2473 · ICT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?