Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 250 · MKE → PHX
departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 10:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 33%
Fri 11/6 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MKE that day
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,933 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.