WN 2824 · SAT → LAS

departs 5:40 AM CT · arrives 6:36 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2824 · SAT → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?