Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 2829 · PHX → COS
departs 7:03 PM MT · arrives 8:51 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Gusts to 40 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at COS that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
COS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,933 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.12 in
COS (destination)
Gusts 41 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.