Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 2858 · STL → SAT
departs 9:42 PM CT · arrives 12:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.