Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 2868 · MDW → DAL
departs 9:15 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 40%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.