Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 301 · MDW → TUL
departs 9:29 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 29%
Fri 11/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 35 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.