WN 3042 · MDW → STL

departs 6:25 AM CT · arrives 7:43 AM CT

Your aircraft is N1810U (B38M), coming in as WN 4230 from SJC: landed 4:40 AM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at STL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MDW are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3042 · MDW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?