WN 3079 · MCI → SMF

took off 10:40 AM CT · landed 11:53 AM PT (scheduled 10:05 AM CT → 12:08 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.63 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3079 · MCI → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?