WN 3154 · MSY → DEN

departs 5:45 AM CT · arrives 7:46 AM MT

Your aircraft is N8874Q (B38M), coming in as WN 4781 from STL: landed 12:34 AM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts43 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3154 · MSY → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?