WN 3187 · AUS → TPA

took off 9:22 AM CT · landed 12:24 PM ET (scheduled 8:59 AM CT → 12:33 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3187 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?