WN 3234 · OAK → SAN

took off 9:19 AM PT · landed 10:23 AM PT (scheduled 7:55 AM PT → 9:35 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ 7am departures from OAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3234 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?