Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 3286 · SAN → DEN
departs 5:56 PM PT · arrives 9:17 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 46 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.