Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 3426 · MDW → LAS
departs 10:51 PM CT · arrives 12:39 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 40%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MDW that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.