WN 3459 · GEG → SMF

took off 5:08 AM PT · expected to land 6:36 AM PT (scheduled 4:56 AM PT → 7:08 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3459 · GEG → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?