Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 3491 · SMF → SEA
departs 9:33 PM PT · arrives 11:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.