Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 3640 · SAN → DAL
departs 6:28 PM PT · arrives 11:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 34%
Thu 11/5 48%
Fri 11/6 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.