WN 3678 · RSW → STL

took off 6:17 AM ET · expected to land 7:29 AM CT (scheduled 6:05 AM ET → 7:44 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RSW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at STL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from RSW are usually not late

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.72 in

STL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3678 · RSW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?