Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3698
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 3698 · LAX → SMF
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 50%
Fri 11/6 55%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.