Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3803
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 3803 · MDW → PHX
departs 10:48 PM CT · arrives 1:46 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MDW that day
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.