Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3955
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 3955 · SMF → ONT
departs 8:44 PM PT · arrives 10:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.