Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3973
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 3973 · SMF → SEA
departs 6:10 PM PT · arrives 8:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 66%
Fri 11/6 66%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.