WN 4050 · SMF → SEA

took off 5:20 AM PT · expected to land 6:47 AM PT (scheduled 5:02 AM PT → 7:14 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4050 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?