Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4056
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4056 · STL → DAL
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 33%
Wed 11/4 39%
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.