Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4171
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4171 · PHX → SFO
departs 10:34 PM MT · arrives 11:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 59%
Fri 11/6 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.