Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4182
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4182 · TPA → MKE
departs 9:07 PM ET · arrives 11:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 37%
Fri 11/6 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.22 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.