Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4212 · TUS → LAS
departs 8:06 PM MT · arrives 8:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±11 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.