WN 4243 · BNA → MCI

took off 9:33 AM CT · expected to land 10:42 AM CT (scheduled 8:06 AM CT → 10:08 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
82%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

MCI (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4243 · BNA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?