WN 4245 · TPA → DEN

departs 5:31 AM ET · arrives 7:31 AM MT

Your aircraft is N8545V (B738), coming in as WN 4206 from STL: landed 11:46 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.24 in

DEN (destination) Gusts39 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4245 · TPA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?