Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4259
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4259 · SAN → SFO
departs 5:23 PM PT · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 42%
Thu 11/5 66%
Fri 11/6 57%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.