Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4299
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4299 · SBA → SMF
departs 7:26 PM PT · arrives 8:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.