Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4426 · ICT → DEN
departs 7:26 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 46 kt forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 39 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 46 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.