Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4485 · LAS → SAT
departs 7:53 PM PT · arrives 12:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 33%
Wed 11/4 33%
Fri 11/6 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.