Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4492 · SAN → DEN
departs 9:14 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 35%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.