Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4523 · BNA → TYS
departs 8:38 PM CT · arrives 10:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 30%
Fri 11/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.