Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4546 · BNA → DTW
departs 8:25 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 33%
Fri 11/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.