Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4551 · DEN → PIT
departs 6:41 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 45%
Wed 11/4 35%
Thu 11/5 48%
Fri 11/6 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 46 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 46 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.