Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4563 · LAS → ELP
departs 10:12 PM PT · arrives 1:02 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 40%
Fri 11/6 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.