Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4569 · MDW → DSM
departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 11:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 37%
Thu 11/5 37%
Fri 11/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DSM that day
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.