Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4630 · BNA → DEN
departs 10:24 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 30%
Fri 11/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 41 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 41 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.