Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4631 · BNA → JAX
departs 8:48 PM CT · arrives 11:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 52%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 31%
Fri 11/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.